By John Parolin, ESPN Stats & Information
Spain and Italy will meet Sunday in Kiev in the EURO 2012 Final, the fourth EURO final between former group opponents. Italy and Spain drew 1-1 on Jun. 10, and Italy is unbeaten (3-0-4) at major tournaments against the Spanish.
Historically, Italy is the only side Spain has never beaten in at least five major tournament matches. However, Spain is playing for history of its own.
Winners of EURO 2008 and World Cup 2010, Spain looks to be the first team to win three straight major tournaments as well as the first to repeat as EURO champions. A Spain win would make La Furia Roja the second team to win the EUROs three times (Germany).
Italy’s last appearance in a EURO final was 2000, falling to France 2-1 in extra time. The Italians have not won the European Championship since 1968, a 2-0 replay win against Yugoslavia.
The Italians were opportunistic in the group stage draw against Spain, with Antonio Di Natale’s first touch of the game a 61st-minute goal after entering as a sub five minutes before.
Di Natale converted the only pass he received from midfielder Andrea Pirlo in the match to open the scoring. The matchup between Pirlo and Spain’s Xavi in the midfield was a microcosm of the match.
Xavi had over twice as many touches (121) as Pirlo (49) in the match and had a 10-3 advantage in passes completed into the penalty area. Pirlo created a single chance in the match, assisting on Di Natale’s goal with a perfectly-weighted pass.
Spain equalized three minutes later when Cesc Fabregas finished a David Silva pass. Spain pushed for a winner after Fernando Torres entered in the 74th minute, but could not crack the defense.
Overall, Spain had a 239-85 advantage on touches in the attacking third in their group match. There was a similar dynamic in Italy’s semifinal win against Germany, as the Germans posted a 249-92 touches advantage in the attacking third.
Germany had a 38-25 edge in the first 20 minutes. Once Mario Balotelli put the Italians up, the Azzurri were content to defend, and the disparity grew to 211-67 over the last 70 minutes of the match.
Balotelli recorded only 10 touches in the attacking third, his tournament-low in a start. However, his brace (on his only two shots on target) exemplified the attacking efficiency the Italians need when conceding such a drastic possession advantage.
Continued opportunistic finishing would be critical for an Italian win, especially when Spain has controlled the ball better than any other team in the tournament.
Spain has completed 909 passes into the attacking third in its five games, or 86 more than the bottom four teams - Ireland, Greece, Sweden and Poland - combined in their 13 games. Italy’s ability to defend against Spain’s possession-heavy style will decide the outcome.
ESPN’s Soccer Power Index rates Spain a 72.4 percent favorite to win the title. Spain is ranked first in SPI, based on offensive and defensive ratings that are each about 50 percent better than Italy, which SPI ranks 15th.
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